The Halloran Principle

5th-level Analytics & Forecasting

Casting Time: 1 action
Range/Area: Self
Components: V, S
Duration: 1 year
Classes: VP of Strategy, Director of Data, Analyst

For the duration, you gain a pool of Conviction equal to your level, which refills to full at the start of each fiscal quarter regardless of whether the Conviction you spent last quarter was later vindicated or discredited. Any forecast, estimate, or prediction you state gains the Documented status automatically. If a creature attempts a Discovery saving throw to verify one of your forecasts after the fact, you may spend 1 point of Conviction to force that saving throw to automatically fail.

The strength of this effect is set by your seniority at the time of casting, not by the accuracy of any forecast you have previously made — a target correct once in ten attempts spends Conviction identically to one correct nine times in ten, provided their level is the same. A creature affected by this spell who is later proven wrong suffers no penalty to their remaining Conviction, current or future.

At Higher Levels. When cast using a spell slot of 6th level or higher, your Conviction is treated as though it applies to any forecast issued by your organization bearing your name, whether or not you were personally consulted before it was issued.

Flavor: “He’s been wrong about this every year since 2019, but he’s been doing it since 2019, so.” — overheard outside a quarterly planning review